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Brazil Crop Forecasts Marginally Higher

Harvest is running behind average; winter corn planting progress also slow

US Export Sales Recap for the Week Ending February 4

  • Corn sales were solid at 57 million bushels which just topped the high end of market expectations; Japan and Mexico were the primary buyers.
  • Old-crop soybean sales came in at 30 million bushels, also topping the high end of expectations, with China the primary buyer.
  • Wheat sales were solid at 22 million bushels; while down from the previous week, sales did top expectations.
  • Unknown and Mexico were the top buyers with HRS wheat having the largest volume of sales.
  • Upland cotton sales totaled 275,400 bales; China was in the lineup.
  • Sorghum sales totaled 110,000 tonnes with China being the buyer.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The export sales report was overall supportive in that totals topped expectations. Corn commitments suggest USDA will have to raise its export forecast in forthcoming reports. Soybean commitments also are strong and suggest another raise could be in store. We also expect interest in wheat to increase in the coming few months.


CONAB Updates Production Outlook for Brazil

  • The agency forecast the soybean crop at a record 133.8 million tonnes, which would be a record.
  • That is up marginally from the previous outlook at 133.7 million tonnes but is near USDA’s latest forecast at 133 million tonnes.
  • Soybean exports are forecast at 85.6 million tonnes.
  • A large volume has been forward sold thanks to Chinese interest.
  • The corn crop is forecast at 105.5 million tonnes, up from January’s number at 102.3 million but lower than USDA’s current projection at 109 million.
  • Wheat imports are seen at 6.8 million tonnes; Argentina is the key supplier.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: It is no secret that Brazil was set to harvest a record soybean crop, but even then the global supply outlook is set to tighten this year versus last year. Harvest is running behind the average and winter corn planting progress also is slow. That raises concerns about that crop’s production potential.

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