Oct 13, 2021

Grain Prices Fall After Bearish WASDE

USDA October reports recap

USDA October Reports Recap

  • The WASDE report produced no major surprises, but most figures fell at the upper end of market estimates.

  • US corn and soybean yields were both pushed higher, at 176.5 bushels per acre for corn and 51.5 bpa for beans.

  • Harvested acres for both grains saw no change.

  • Total production for both climbed higher; corn increased by 23 MB to 15,019 MB and beans rose 74 MB to 4,448 MB.

  • Ending stocks for both also climbed; corn increased 92 MB to 1,500 MB and beans jumped 135 MB to 320 MB.

  • US corn exports increased 25 MB.

  • No major international changes for corn and beans, though Chinese and Brazilian bean stocks increased slightly.

  • Tight US and global wheat stocks confirmed.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: While there were no noticeable surprises, the numbers leaned bearish for corn and beans and futures responded as such. Wheat, on the other hand, inched higher. There probably will not be any major revisions until the January report. Global demand and the South American crop should provide market direction in the interim.

FBN
FBN

US Crop Progress Report as of October 10

  • The Crop Progress Report showed corn harvest is 41% in the bins, 12 points higher than last week; average is 31%.

  • 94% of the crop is mature, eight points ahead of the average.

  • Soybeans also saw good harvest progress, gaining 15 points on the week to be 49% done; average is 40%.

  • 91% of soybeans are dropping leaves, slightly ahead of average.

  • Corn and bean both had their G/E ratings tick up one point: 60% for corn and 59% for beans.

  • Winter wheat plantings are at 60% done, in line with average; 31% of the crop has emerged.

  • Sorghum harvest is at 49%, seven points ahead of average.

  • Cotton harvest still lags due to the weather, 20% versus 26% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn and bean harvests continue to make good progress. There may be some fronts across the southern Midwest and Plains, but nothing that should slow harvest. Western wheat planting areas are a bit dry, but other spots have seen improved precipitation and soil moisture.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Oct, 26

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.1614
high: 5.1895
low: 5.139
close: 5.1704

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.8617
high: 11.9478
low: 11.8144
close: 11.943

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.5274
high: 7.5849
low: 7.5238
close: 7.5716

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0893
high: 7.1297
low: 7.0671
close: 7.1023