Jan 25, 2021

U.S. Export Sales Have Not Slowed

CBoT prices remain weak after last week’s rout

U.S. Export Sales Have Not Slowed

  • Soybean export sales for the week ended January 14 were up sharply from the previous week at 66.8 million bushels, and were the largest in 13 weeks.
  • China purchased 17.9 million bushels while another 14.6 million bushels were switched from unknown destinations.
  • Total soybean purchases this year by China are now at 1,264 million bushels, compared to 426 million last year.
  • Corn export sales were greater than expected at 56.6 million bushels.
  • There were no sales reported to China during the week, while Mexico and Japan were again the biggest buyers.
  • Wheat export sales of 12.1 million bushels were lower than expected as US prices remain uncompetitive to many destinations.
  • Upland cotton sales of 292,400 running bales were down 10% from the previous week, but nearly unchanged from the prior 4-week average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means : China continues to buy US beans due to concern about Brazilian harvest delays and potential for crop damage with untimely excessive rainfall. China’s record demand will likely continue to underpin grain prices in general.

FBN

U.S. Row Crop Acreage Projected Higher

  • IHS Markit (Informa) forecast 2021/22 corn area at 94.2 million, up sharply from 91.1 million last month and 90.8 million last year.
  • Soybean acreage was projected at 90.1 million, compared to 89.4 million previously and 83 million last year.
  • Soybean plus corn acres of 184.3 million would be record large, eclipsing the previous record 181 million in 2017.
  • Spring wheat planted area was projected at 11.5 million acres, down from 11.7 in December and 12.25 million last year.
  • USDA reported final 2020 Conservation Reserve Program enrollment at 20.8 million acres, which was down from 22 million in 2019.
  • USDA will next project acreage mix and full 2021/22 balance sheets during its Outlook Forum on February 18–19.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Additional acreage is expected in row crops this spring given prices near the highest levels of the last several seasons. However, even though trend yields and more acres could result in a record bean crop, the projected balance sheet remains tight, and leaves little room for any weather issues through the US growing season.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014