CONAB Cuts Brazil Corn Crop Forecast
The agency’s report showed total production at 86.7 million tonnes compared to 96.4 million in July and 103 million last year.
Safrinha corn production was projected at 60 million tonnes, down from 75 million last year.
Harvest is winding down in Mato Grosso at 94% complete, while accelerating in Parana to 22% done versus 10% last week.
CONAB slightly increased its bean crop production estimate to 135.98 million tonnes from 135.91 million last month, up 11.1 million from last year.
The report noted the area planted to soybeans was up 4.3% from last year to 38.5 million hectares (95.1 million acres).
USDA’s last bean crop projection was 137 million tonnes, while ABIOVE is looking for 137.5 million.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Further expansion of soy planted area in Brazil is expected this upcoming year as prices remain elevated, and likely partially offset tighter world supplies. The USDA is expected to lower their Brazilian corn production forecast and increase new crop US exports in its report on Thursday.
India to Import Soymeal
The government announced it will temporarily allow 1.2–1.5 million tonnes of GMO soymeal imports to help the poultry industry deal with high feed prices.
In the past 10 years, India’s meal demand has increased almost 90% while soymeal exports have dropped 65% over the same time period.
Up to now, India's largest soymeal imports in any crop year was just 49,000 tonnes.
The government also plans to spend $1.5B to increase oilseed production with the long-term goal of becoming self-sufficient in edible oils.
The country currently produces less than half of the almost 24 million tonnes of vegoils consumed annually.
India’s vegoil imports have risen from 4 million tonnes to 15 million in recent years, with projections of 20 million tonnes by 2030.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: In the near term this may allow China to export more soymeal and support higher crush rates and overall bean demand which has been lagging. We would expect demand for US supplies will likely pick up in the coming months.
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