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May 14, 2021

Ag Prices Stabilize After Steep Correction

Argentina crop report; Strategie Grains holds EU wheat outlook

Argentina Crop Report

  • Corn harvest was reported at 25% complete, up from 23% and still behind the average of 34%.

  • Condition ratings were down slightly to 43% good to excellent from 44% last week and remain above the 36% seen last year.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its production forecast at 46 million tons in line with the USDA at 47 million.

  • Sorghum is 32% harvested and BAGE raised its production forecast by 300,000 tonnes to 3.3 million tonnes.

  • Soy harvest progress was up to 70.6% complete versus 87.4% last year and compares to 74.2% on average.

  • 33.1 mmt of beans have been harvested and yields remain extremely variable.

  • The exchange held its soy crop forecast at 43 million tonnes compared to the USDA at 47 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn continues to show good yields in the provinces of Santa Fe and Córdoba. Although harvest is behind, more than enough grain is moving to ports and cash prices remain weak. Dry weather in Argentina promoted good harvest progress for beans. The average yield has continued to slip, and likely accounts for the difference in production forecasts.


Strategie Grains Holds EU Wheat Outlook

  • Despite weather concerns in France, the agency held its soft wheat production forecast for the EU at 129.6 million tonnes.

  • Durum production is forecast at 8.1 million tonnes, up nearly 1 million tonnes versus a year ago.

  • Soft + durum is seen at 137.7 million tonnes, which is compared with USDA’s latest forecast for the EU at 134 million tonnes.

  • Corn production is seen up two million tonnes at 65.2 million versus last year.

  • The agency marginally trimmed its barley production outlook to 53.7 million tonnes, which would be down from last year’s crop at 55.5 million.

  • Acreage gains for soft wheat and durum resulted in losses for other crops.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Favorable weather in other countries in the EU offset losses for the French wheat crop of 500,000 tonnes. Crop stress was eased recently thanks to rains. Recovery in the EU wheat outlook plus the competition from the Black Sea will keep North America struggling to maintain export shares in the wheat market.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391