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May 21, 2021

Wheat Tour Sees Potential Record Crop

Tour results increase expectations for US HRW crop significantly larger than the USDA’s current forecast of 733M bushels

Argentina Crop Progress

  • There was little progress in corn last week as harvest reached 27.6% complete compared to 25% last week and 44% average.

  • Corn crop condition ratings increased to 47% good to excellent from 43% last week.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its corn crop estimate at 46 million tonnes versus the USDA at 47 million.

  • Soy harvest was active, jumping to 85.4% complete from 70.6% previously, and is now ahead of the 82.1% average.

  • 38.7 million tonnes of beans have been harvested and yield to date is 2.75 kilos per hectare in a wide range of 1.5 to 4.5.

  • BAGE left its bean crop estimate unchanged at a relatively low 43 million tonnes versus USDA’s 47 million projection at the upper end of the range.

  • Fieldwork is just underway for wheat, with seeding 3.5% complete on an expected area of 6.5 million hectares, unchanged from last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Dry weather in Argentina continues to promote quick harvest progress for soybeans. Wetter weather this weekend could slow the remaining harvest, but dry weather is forecast to return next week. Ongoing harvest continues to pressure offers, especially in corn, while producers tend to hold on to beans. If the soy crop size turns out to be closer to the BA exchange forecast, prices will likely be supported at least until more is known about the US crop.


Wheat Tour Sees Potential Record Crop

  • The annual Wheat Quality Council hard winter wheat tour wrapped up Thursday.

  • The tour projected a record Kansas state yield of 58.1 bushels per acre.

  • The previous state record yield was 57 bushels per acre in 2016.

  • Since 2015 the tour projection has generally been within 2 to 3 bushels per acre of the actual yield.

  • USDA last projected the Kansas yield at 48 bushels per acre for a crop of 331 million bushels compared to 45 and 281 million last year.

  • Recent rainfall greatly improved crop conditions after a dry early spring.

  • Some disease pressure from stripe rust was noted due to the wet weather and increased temperatures.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The tour results increase expectations for a US HRW crop significantly larger than the USDA’s current forecast of 733 million bushels, which will likely continue to weigh on KC prices relative to Chicago and Minneapolis. However, the crop is not final and there is room for change depending on weather for the balance of the season.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391