Heavy mid-October rain across Texas and Oklahoma drove widespread drought improvement on the southern Plains during the past week, even as dryness intensified from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the western Ohio River Valley, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA.
The map released Thursday, with data valid through Oct. 20, shows 50.67% of the Lower 48 in moderate drought or worse, down from 53.73% a week earlier. Exceptional drought, the most severe category, covered 1.19% of the Lower 48, down from 1.30%. The share of U.S. winter wheat production area in drought fell to 49% from 53%, and sorghum fell to 40% from 43%. Corn held at 20%, and soybeans rose to 27% from 26%.
A storm system Oct. 13-15 brought 3 to 5 inches of rain to the southeastern Texas Panhandle and 6 to 8 inches in spots west of Oklahoma City, which recorded 4.99 inches by late afternoon Oct. 14. The rain followed a hot, dry August and September and supported one-category improvements across western and northern Texas, the Panhandle and much of Oklahoma, including reductions in exceptional drought. Accumulated deficits limited more widespread drought removal, the Drought Monitor said.
Additional improvement reached Kansas, Nebraska, eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming, where parts of the central High Plains received 1 to 2 inches. That moisture lands as the Kansas winter wheat crop runs behind schedule. Kansas winter wheat was 60% planted and 30% emerged as of Oct. 18, compared with five-year averages of 69% and 43%, according to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.
The picture is different in the Delta. Extreme drought expanded across northern Arkansas and along the Missouri-Arkansas border, while exceptional drought developed or expanded across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Drought also expanded in Mississippi and Tennessee. The Drought Monitor cited worsening 30- to 90-day precipitation deficits, severely depleted soil moisture and exceptionally low streamflows, along with agricultural impact reports documenting worsening conditions in Arkansas. Rice production area in drought held at 83%.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which measures dryness in the upper soil and vegetation, reached 700 to 800 in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, indicating severe dryness and elevated wildfire potential.
The near-term outlook favors the West and southern Plains over the Delta. The Weather Prediction Center forecasts up to 3 to 5 inches from western Texas into southwestern Kansas through Oct. 27, while much of the Mississippi Valley, Midwest and Southeast is expected to stay dry. The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for Oct. 26-30 favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
