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IGC Forecasts Grain Production Records

Group projects record harvests of wheat and barley

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Members of the International Grains Council (IGC) convened for the 52nd Council Session in London, on January 22 via video conference. The meeting was chaired by Corinne Roux, Policy Advisor, Trade Relations Unit, Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG), Switzerland.

The Secretariat presented its latest supply and demand forecasts and market developments for grains, rice and oilseeds in 2020/21.

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is forecast to expand by 23m t y/y, to an all-time high of 2,210m, including record harvests of wheat and barley. Although the COVID pandemic continues to dampen demand in some sectors, particularly for fuel ethanol and brewing, overall consumption is predicted to grow for a fifth successive year, to 2,216m t (+24m y/y). Another drawdown of world grains stocks is envisaged, to a five-year low of 611m t (-6m y/y), entirely because of a drop in maize inventories, to an eight-year low. Global grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is expected to reach a record 408m t, up by 4% y/y.

The first projections for world wheat supply and demand in 2021/22 point to record production and, despite higher consumption, a further accumulation of global stocks.

Despite dwindling southern hemisphere prospects, world soyabean output in 2020/21 is still expected to rise by 6% y/y, mainly on a much larger US crop. Underpinned by growth in China’s feed sector, global use is seen expanding by 4%, to a high of 365 m t. Global inventories are predicted to contract for a second consecutive year. While a modest increase in deliveries to China is likely, tightening availabilities and elevated prices could dampen buying by other importers as trade falls by 1% y/y.

Read the full report here.

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