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Export Sales Support Bounce in Grains

The export sales helped support the bounce in the grain complex after showing better than expected corn and soybean sales.

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In the overnight session we have seen some buyers come back into the market with corn up 4 ½ cents, soybeans up 6 ½ cents and wheat in Chicago up 4 ¼ cents. Yesterday, corn and soybeans both found some support with soybeans dipping below $10 during the day but closing the session at 10.10 ¾. This morning 127,000 metric tons of old crop corn sales were reported for delivery to Japan.

Also out this morning will be NOPA crush numbers which may add a sharp amount of volatility to the market. Expectations for December crush is for 166.9 million bushels of soybeans which would be a record. The previous crush record was December 2013 which used 165.3 million bushels of soybeans.

The weekly export sales were released at 7:30 AM CST this morning showing that wheat met analyst expectations with sales of 284,000 metric tons sold. Wheat sales were up 89% week over week, but even with the improvement that kind of volume will do little to help wheat prices move back toward the high printed on December 18th. Last night Egypt’s GASC set a tender to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers, the market will be watching the results closely.

Corn sales picked up this week with 818,800 metric tons compared to expectations of 550,000-750,000 metric tons. This week’s corn export sales more than doubled last week’s numbers which only booked 387,648 metric tons, well below analyst expectations. This week’s export sales show corn sales now 63% booked compared to the USDA’s January 12th expectations.

Soybean sales booked 1,133,200 metric tons of old crop sales which is up 24% from last week and well above analyst expectations of between 700,000-900,000 metric tons. Soybean export sales have now booked 92% of projected USDA export sales.

Today we will also see Informa Economics’ projected acreage for the 2015/16 marketing year.

Actual Export Sales Analyst Estimates

Corn 818,800 550,000-750,000

Soybeans 1,133,200 700,000-900,000

Wheat 284,000 250,000-500,000

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