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Can Soybeans Continue Higher?

The grains are trading slightly lower this morning after a positive day yesterday. Cold weather throughout the Midwest and an Egyptian tender has provided a bid under wheat.

Cody Headshot
File Photo
File Photo

In the overnight session corn traded down 2 ¼ cents, soybeans slipped 2 cents and wheat increased 1 ¾ of a cent. Be careful of soybeans hitting resistance during today’s trading session. We are currently trading near resistance from the lows of the soybeans channel that lasted from October through January. Though we could get continuation buying early on in the session, be careful of some selling pressure at these levels.

NOPA crush numbers were within analyst expectations for the month of January. In the report released at 11 AM CST, the National Oilseed Processors Association announced that 162.675 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in January compared to expectations of 162.673 million bushels. This month’s soybean crush was the largest ever in January topping last year’s January total of 156.943. Soyoil stocks were larger than expected at 1.228 billion pounds compared to expectations of 1.170 billion pounds.

Egypt has set a tender on Tuesday to buy an unspecified amount of U.S. origin wheat for April delivery. A tender from GASC has been expected to purchase U.S. wheat over recent weeks to take advantage of a 100 million dollar credit line provided by the United States.

Government farm office, FranceAgrimer, lifted its French wheat export estimates by 1 MMT for 14/15 for outside the EU to 9.8 and cut ending stock to 3.63 MMT from 4.34 MMT last month. EU wheat exports have picked up significant pace in response to the Russian export curbs. In the latest USDA supply and demand report EU exports were also revised 1 MMT higher from the previous month.

Cold weather is expected to enter the Midwest and continue into Friday. Although there is snow cover throughout much of the Midwest, around 10-15 percent of dormant wheat remains at risk of winterkill. The most vulnerable areas are through Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Some snow is expected this weekend to help avert future cold snaps.

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