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WASDE Expectations

The market is trading higher this morning with anticipation for the July WASDE report. See the expectations below.

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In the overnight session the grains continued higher with corn up 3 cents, soybeans up 8 1/4 cents and wheat trading 6 1/2 cents higher. The U.S. dollar is trading 1 percent lower and crude oil is up 48 cents this morning. Keep in mind that the July Supply and Demand report will be released at 11 CST today.

In a poll conducted by Reuters the average analyst guess was for old crop corn and soybean ending stocks to be lowered substantially which would reflect the lower than expected quarterly grain stocks figure released on June 30th. Analysts are also expecting 15/16 corn and soybean production to be lowered due to the excessive rains over the last few months.

Analysts are expecting old crop corn ending stocks to be revised lower by 65 million bushels to 1.811 MBU reflecting the smaller than expected quarterly grain stocks reported in the June 30th quarterly grain stocks report. Soybean ending stocks are also expected to decline to 287 million bushels from 330 million bushels in the last WASDE report.

New crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans are also expected to be revised lower as a result of the heavy rains which has prevented planting throughout Missouri and drowned and damaged crops throughout the eastern grain belt. Analysts are expecting 15/16 corn ending stocks to be 1.54 billion bushels, down from 1.771 billion bushels in the last WASDE report. The average trade guess for soybean ending stocks is 370 million bushels from 475 million bushels in June. Analysts expect yield to be lowered by about a bushel per acre for soybeans and 1.4 bushel per acre for corn.

Next week should bring highs in the 80’s and low 90’s early in the week and provide more precipitation for the northwestern states, a positive for crop growth and yield potential in that region. Rains are expected to be above average throughout the eastern grain belt including Indiana and Ohio which are already saturated.

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