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Soybeans to test 100 day moving average

Soybeans printed a bullish price pattern in the last two trade sessions. Can it break through overhead resistance at the 100 day moving average?

Cody Headshot

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn up 1 cent, soybeans up 9 3/4 cents and wheat down 1/2 a penny. The U.S. dollar is trading a fraction of a percent lower and crude oil is higher by 73 cents. This morning the ADP jobs data showed that 185,000 workers were added to payrolls in July which was below expectations which ranged from 190,000 to 263,000. Egypt announced a tender for 55-60,000 metric tons of wheat from either the US, Ukraine, Russia or Australia. The U.S. is not expected to win the tender due a stronger U.S dollar and higher prices here in the U.S. Korea also issued a tender for purchase of up to 207,000 metric tons of yellow corn to be sourced from optional origins this morning.

Last night at 3:30 PM CST FC Stone announced their first 2015 corn and soybean production forecast which was below current USDA forecasts. FC Stone’s corn production estimate was 149 million bushels shy of the USDA with 13.381 billion bushels. They see corn yield at 165 bushels per acre compared to a current USDA forecast of 166.8 BPA. Soybean production was also below current USDA estimates with 3.797 billion bushels forecast for the 15/16 marketing year. Soybean yield was forecast at 45 bushels per acre compared to a current USDA forecast of 46 BPA. This morning China’s agriculture ministry proposed to lower corn prices to help support margins for domestic hog producers and lower the prices of pork.

The weather forecast looks to bring some excitement into the market for soybeans as chances of rain in the 6-15 day forecast provide low confidence that extensive showers will relieve the dry spots in northeast Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Only 54 percent of the soybean crop has set pods making the short rooted crop more vulnerable to dryness in the coming weeks. ​

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