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Weekly Cash Comments

Cash Commentary for week ending September 25th

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Soybean basis was off sharply this week giving up 5 cents a bushel, while corn basis was relatively quiet and unchanged for the week.

Harvest has gotten into full swing with USDA reporting at the start of the week that 10 percent of the corn crop has been harvested and 7 percent of the soybean crop. Heavy rains around Nebraska and Iowa late in the week stalled harvest progress, but the 10-day outlook shows clear and dry weather which should accelerate the harvest progress. Yield reports so far have done little to sway the expectation of bumper crops for both corn and beans that the market has factored in. Historically, big crop years lead to lower basis levels at harvest, but it starts to improve rapidly after harvest. This year seems to be no exception, with both corn and soybean basis generally less than 5-year average levels. We would expect basis levels to start improving around mid-November into the next calendar year.

For soybeans, spot basis was off 5 cents this week but was significantly weaker at river terminals where losses averaged 10 cents a bushel. Barge rates continued to climb this week as grain movement starts to pickup. At soybean plants, losses of 20 cents a bushel were fairly common this week as the market adjusts fully to new-crop supplies hitting the market.

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