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Morning Commentary -July 25

Soybeans was a leader to the downside

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Soybeans was a leader to the downside this losing 51.25 cents. Compared to soybeans, corn and wheat were down modestly, off 23.5 and 16.25 respectively.

Weather models continue to show a wet and cooling trend from the recent heat wave. Temperatures should return to seasonal norms by early next week and even dip below normal by late next week.

USDA's crop progress report on Monday showed no material changes in crop conditions with both corn and soybean crop ratings holding steady at 76% and 71%, respectively from the previous week. Spring wheat dropped 1% to 69%. But the overall trend is still better crops ratings than what traders have been expecting as well as conditions that are generally better than last year.

US Exports were mixed this week. Old and new crop corn came in slightly lower than analysts expectations. Old crop soybeans were in line with expectations, but new crop came in almost 300,000 MT above expectations.

Wheat exports have the potential to increase in the next few months. News out of Europe points to disappointing yields with French wheat yield estimates at the lowest seen in 13 years.

Crude oil continues to move lower. Rebalancing may take longer than expected as huge amounts of crude remain in vessels at sea and storage tanks on land. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also showed a surprise build in supplies of the motor fuel despite forecasts of American drivers hitting the road in record numbers this summer.

"The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substaintial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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