Grains were showing modest gains going into today’s big crop report.
Yesterday after the close, Brazilian analyst Agroconsult pegged the soy crop there at 113 MMT versus a previous forecast of 111 MMT and well above USDA which was at 108 MMT. Their latest forecast was based on a crop tour which suggested record yields in many growing regions. For corn, they kept their forecast at 95 MMT also above USDA at 91.5 MMT.
Rains continue to look plentiful for the Southern Plains, benefitting the HRW crop. Heading into April, weather forecasts point to plentiful rains in the Midwest, with some cold temps possible in the 2nd week of the month. The most likely scenario seems to point to high rainfall throughout most of the region, with the main risk being excessive wetness that could slow the planting pace.
Today’s crop report will provide the first guidance on 2017 supplies as USDA releases its farmer-based survey on planting intentions. Traders expect 3 million fewer acres of corn, 5 million more acres of soybeans and 4 million less acres of wheat. Corn stocks will also be closely followed for indications on feed use for Q2.
Watch Thursday’s GrainTV for our perspective on the report
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