Crop Scouts Reports from 2nd Day of Wheat Tour

Storms Crossing the Plains Today to bring another 2 to 4 Inches of Rain

October 2, 2020

Grains were lower overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the complex down. Corn was off slightly in quiet trade.

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Crop scouts on the second day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas hard red winter wheat fields projected an average yield of 46.9 bushels per acre in the southwestern portion of the state. The figure is above the Wheat Quality Council tour's prior five-year average for the same area of 39.1, but down from the tour's year-ago finding of 49.3. Oklahoma's 2017 average winter wheat yield is projected at 33.7 bushels per acre, an official with the industry group Plains Grains said on Wednesday. The estimate compares with the state's official 2016 yield of 39.0 bpa, a record high. Production in Oklahoma, typically the No. 2 or No. 3 U.S. winter wheat state, was forecast at 100.1 million bushels, based on harvested acreage of 2.98 million acres, said Mark Hodges, executive director of Plains Grains.

A storm crossing the Plains today is expected to bring another 2 to 4 inches of rain to already flooded Missouri and Illinois that will further pressure swollen rivers and streams. Major to catastrophic flooding in expected for some in the coming days. Fields completely under water will be at increased risk for replant. The good news is that by late week all of the rain will move into eastern regions, particularly the Northeast. A drying trend is expected over the entire Corn Belt south into Texas and the Delta for the
rest of the period, but temperatures will remain on the cooler side of normal. Still, planting pace should pick up where fields are dry, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa and points north. Above normal warmth will return to the Plains next week.

The European Commission trimmed its forecast for usable production of common wheat in the EU in the upcoming 2017/18 season to 141.9 MMT from 142.2 a month ago. The reduced forecast was still well above last year's estimated output of 134.4 MMT.

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