Rains in the past 2 days favored S Plains/N Delta; spotty activity C North Dakota into C Minnesota and C & SE Midwest. Showers less than expected in NW Midwest; rains favor Great Lakes/far S Midwest/Delta through Friday. The front now arrives at middle of next week, with N & E Midwest trending wetter; similar placement in 11-15 day. Very low forecast confidence overall right now on Midwest rain placement as models are shifting frequently.
Recent weather model runs suggest the first half of July will be drier than normal across the Corn Belt. This is not necessarily ideal, but the concern is mitigated by the fact that temperatures are unlikely to be excessively warm. Either way, the weather forecast is questionable enough to have corn market-watchers on edge.
The early feel on CBOT grains and soy seems to be higher based on forecasts for warmer and drier weather in the US Midwest and Plains.
Ships carrying as much as 700,000 tonnes of soybeans are lined up along China’s coast waiting to discharge, traders said, as huge purchases in recent months by the world’s top buyer led to severe congestion and lifted stockpiles to multi-year highs.
The slowdown at the ports and long wait times to clear customs may threaten a recent rally in Chinese soymeal prices and may stir concern about demand from major exporters Brazil and the US.
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