In the overnight session the grains were mixed with March corn up ¾ of a cent, January soybeans up 2 ½ cents and March Chicago wheat down 1 ¼ cents. Since December 5th, soybean prices have been on a steady decline, breaking through support and pushing to lows we haven’t seen since September. Look for any rebound to be met with resistance around the $9.66 ½ price level.
South America continues to get the necessary precipitation to alleviate crop production concerns. Northern Argentina should receive good precipitation on Friday and into the weekend, while the central and southern production areas should receive precipitation from Wednesday through Friday. More precipitation is expected in Argentina next week.
The latest weather models call for colder temperatures in the Hard Red Winter wheat region between December 25th and 26th. Snow expected throughout Colorado and Nebraska will help protect some of the crop from the most extreme temperatures, but the cold snap will leave some areas vulnerable especially if the snow doesn’t materialize.
Soybean exports out of Brazil have been strong during a season when they typically slow down and exports shift the the U.S shores. Brazil’s mid-month port lineups show 1 million metric tons more soybeans on the docket than in 2015. Exports are running more smoothly this year as improvements at major ports and exporters have used Northern Brazil ports more. Corn exports in Brazil are lagging significantly with just under half the corn lined up in December compared to the 2015 marketing year. The lower corn sales are a result of record exports from July through September combined with Brazilian farmers unwilling to sell their corn at these prices.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)