In the overnight session the grains traded slightly lower with March corn down ½ a cent to 3.65 1/4, March soybeans down 3 1/4 cents, March wheat down 3/4 of cent and Kansas City Wheat down 1 1/2 cents. Due to the holiday shortened week the USDA will release export sales on Friday.
Exporters Sell 130,000 metric tons of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA
Exporters Sell 110,000 metric tons of Soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations of which 55,000 MT is for 2017/2018 delivery and 55,000 MT is for 2018/2019 delivery. -USDA
On Wednesday, the Rosario Exchange lowered its corn and soybean production forecast for the current growing season. Argentina soybean production was lowered to 46.5 million metric tons from 52 million metric tons (WASDE @ 54 MMT). Argentina corn production was revised to 35 million metric tons from 40 million metric tons in its previous forecast (WASDE @39 MMT). The latest forecast in Argentina is for net drying to persist in Argentina until Tuesday at which time there is a likely chance for precipitation. However, the confidence that the precipitation event will provide widespread meaningful rain is low.
More rain fell last night in Northern and Eastern Texas with as much as 1 to 2 inches accumulated. Any significant rain missed Oklahoma and Kansas over the last 18 hours. Temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 20’s across much of Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Russian Grain Consultancy IKAR announced today that it has increased its forecast for Russian 17/18 grain exports to 48.6 million metric tons, up from 47.7 MMT. The company also increased its wheat export estimate to 37.5 MMT from 36.6 MMT in its previous forecast.
The FOMC minutes released yesterday indicated to traders that more rate hikes are on the table. Although three rate hikes this year is fully priced into the market, the comments by the committee that “a gradual upward trajectory of the federal funds rate would be appropriate” could suggest that a fourth rate hike is not off the table.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)
