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Crop Progress Remains Ahead of Schedule

Corn conditions are in line with average season-starting conditions over last 10 years

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USDA Crop Progress Report

  • Corn planting is 88% complete vs 80% last week, 55% last year and 82% average.
  • The first corn crop condition rating of the year is 70% good to excellent vs last year's initial condition (in early June) of 59% good to excellent.
  • 65% of soybean planting is finished compared with 53% last week, 26% last year and 55% average.
  • Spring wheat planting jumped to 81% complete vs 60% last week, 80% last year, and 90% average.
  • Winter wheat conditions are 54% good to excellent compared with 52% last week and 61% last year. Texas was 27% harvested.
  • Cotton planting was 53% complete, up from 44% last week, and keeping pace with 53% last year and 53% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn conditions are in line with average season-starting conditions over the last 10 years. The main laggard is Illinois at 55% good to excellent, which is lower than usual due to excessive rain in several regions of the state. Winter wheat conditions have stabilized and improved over the last two weeks. Harvest is underway in Texas and will start in Oklahoma soon. We will learn more about possible freeze/drought damage soon.

Brazil’s Safrinha Corn Crop Estimate Cut

  • Agroconsult revised the second-crop (safrinha) corn output forecast to 71.7 million tonnes, which was 3 million tonnes lower than the March 31 forecast.
  • The consultant reported average yields are seen as 10.8% lower than 2019.
  • But, an increased planted area estimate of 13.3 million hectares, which was a 5.2% rise from March, offset some of the yield cut.
  • The forecast for the total Brazilian corn crop is now 98 million tonnes compared with 101.6 million tonnes previously.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazil’s crop production continues to suffer due to the effects of a drought in key southern regions this season. The lower corn output will support higher domestic prices, and could continue to help US export interest, which has picked up in recent weeks after a slow start this crop year.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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