Market Expectations for Today’s USDA Acreage Report
Reuters released a poll with analysts’ expectations for USDA’s acreage report.
The average estimate for corn area is at 93.8 million acres compared with USDA’s March at 91.1 million and 90.8 million last year.
FBN’s survey expects 92.9 million acres, near the low end of the range of expectations of 92 - 95.84 million.
Bean acres are on average seen at 88.9 million, up from the March intentions of 87.6 million acres and 83.1 million last year.
FBN’s survey of 86.5 million acres is below the lowest pre-report estimate which range 87.9 - 90.4 million acres.
The planted area of spring wheat is expected to be 11.4 million acres, down from 11.74 million acres in March and 12.25 million last year.
FBN has projected spring wheat acres slightly above intentions at 11.9 million acres.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: All eyes will be on the acreage figures at midday today. The largest surprise could be in beans, where no analyst has reported an expected figure below the March intentions. If FBN’s forecast is realized, given the very thin margins for stocks in the coming year, it could be supportive for prices through the summer and into harvest. June 1 stocks also are being released today.
US Quarterly Stocks Expectations
USDA will release its June 1 quarterly Grain Stocks report today alongside the Acreage report at 11am CT.
The average estimate for corn stocks is 4,144 million bushels in a range of 3,917-4,546 million versus 5,003 million last year.
There is potential for record high total usage last quarter as exports to China offset the rationing of feed usage.
Bean stocks are estimated at 787 million bushels in a range of 696-952 million compared to 1,381 million last year.
In the last four years, bean stocks have been reported below the average trade estimate, but the difference has not been significant.
The trade is expecting 859 million bushels of wheat on hand in a range of 777-960 million versus 1,028 million last year.
Wheat stocks in the June report are often higher than expected, and have exceeded the average estimate in 16 of the last 21 years.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Most attention has been focused on the upcoming acreage figures, but the stocks data also have the potential to move markets significantly, especially in corn. In the last ten years, the average trade estimate has missed the June 1 corn stocks number by an average 145 million bushels. With corn and bean stocks at historically tight levels and the possible larger substitution of wheat into feed rations, there is potential for volatile reactions if stocks are not as expected, especially given the tightening situation present for the three crops.
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