Dec 11, 2020

Wheat Firmer, Row Crops Weaker After USDA Report

Report underscored tightening global stocks situation for grains and oilseeds

WASDE Highlights - USDA Trims Stocks Versus November

  • USDA cut global stocks for corn, soybeans, wheat, canola, barley, and sorghum in its latest report versus the November numbers.
  • Generally, strong demand is outweighing changes in production, which is resulting in tightening stocks.
  • China largely is the driver behind the boost in global demand and trade.
  • USDA raised China’s wheat and corn imports, underscoring the need for feed in the country and the tightening corn situation faced there.
  • China is set to have a third consecutive year of declining corn stocks.
  • No major changes were made to US balance sheets with stocks for soybeans and wheat trimmed slightly; USDA raised the US soy crush to a record.
  • Upland cotton production was reduced 1.14 million bales and exports were increased 400,000, reducing ending stocks to 5.7 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The report offered no major market shifting news, but did underscore the tightening global stocks situation for grains and oilseeds. We remain in an overall supportive market despite a record soybean crop expected out of Brazil for now. Major weakness in grains and oilseeds is not expected in the near term.


Weekly U.S. Export Sales

  • Corn sales were within market expectations, coming in at a robust 53.6 million bushels, remaining well above last year.
  • Mexico was the biggest buyer again, taking 16.9 million bushels, while 16.6 million went to “unknown”, and China bought 5.5 million.
  • Soybean sales continued the recent trend of reduced volume at 20.9 million bushels.
  • China bought just 8.6 million bushels of beans last week, while 16.9 million were switched from unknown for total commitments 1,117 million bushels.
  • Wheat sales were better than expected at 22.7 million bushels, well above the 8.2 million seen last year.
  • 2.4 million bushels of white wheat and 110,000 of hard red wheat were sold to China.
  • Upland cotton sales of 403,000 running bales were up 61% from the prior four week average mainly due to increases from China.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn sales over the last three weeks have been stout as U.S. supplies remain competitively priced. Increased sales of white wheat have led the USDA to increase its export estimate there. Bean sales have slowed sharply after an unprecedented start to the marketing year, but commitments are record large. We look for solid export sales to continue into the new year.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 23

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.9581
high: 6.0469
low: 5.9312
close: 6.024

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.7453
high: 13.8187
low: 13.6381
close: 13.7007

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.7319
high: 7.8293
low: 7.6894
close: 7.7295

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.428
high: 7.503
low: 7.373
close: 7.3929