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Aug 17, 2021

Wheat Corrects Lower As Harvest Advances

Spring wheat harvest jumped 20 points to 58% complete

US Crop Progress Update as of August 15 & Pro Farmer Comments

  • Spring wheat harvest jumped 20 points to 58% complete versus the average at 36%; protein content so far is above average.

  • Oat harvest advanced to 75%, slightly ahead of the 70% average.

  • Barley harvest is 54% complete, up 19 points for the week and 10 points ahead of the average.

  • Conditions for corn and beans slipped on the week.

  • The US corn crop was 22% dented, in line with the average.

  • 81% of the US bean crop is setting pods, near the average at 79%.

  • The ProFarmer tour is underway with crop scouts across the US Corn Belt.

  • South Dakota corn yields are estimated at 151.45 bushels versus 179.24 last year while Ohio is seen at 185.06 bushels versus 167.69 last year.

  • Pod counts were higher for Ohio versus last year but lower for South Dakota.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: A drop in corn and bean conditions is not surprising given the weather and timing of the growing season. Weather is becoming less important for both crops but still can impact, especially beans. Spring wheat harvest is likely to continue at a rapid pace with above-average protein and quality, not a surprise. Canada could report the same. Nothing so far indicates we have much larger crops than currently expected for the US.


Russian Wheat Prices Higher

  • Russian wheat prices rose sharply last week, moving in line with the US and EU on worries over global supply.

  • IKAR reported Russian 12.5% protein wheat for August delivery was $287 per tonne free on board (FOB), up $20 from the previous week.

  • Sovecon reported a similar increase of $18 to $286 per tonne.

  • Concerns were heightened by the USDA’s cut to its forecast for the 2021/22 global wheat crop last week.

  • Russia’s floating weekly export tax was actually lowered $.60 to $30.40 per tonne for this week.

  • With harvest well over halfway done, Russian producer sales are reported to be light despite recent strong increases in interior prices.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: The decrease in export availability in the US, Canada, and Russia along with unknown quality losses in the EU is being reflected in price rises. There is a risk that the Russian government could institute some further convoluted policy to control domestic prices, making it harder to plan shipments. World buyers will likely want to catch up on purchases, which should keep prices well supported.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391