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Jul 30, 2021

Spring Wheat Tour Wraps Up

North Dakota yield at 29.1 bushes/acre - lowest for state since 2002

US Spring Wheat Tour Sees ND Yield at 29.1 Bushels/Acre

  • The tour wrapped up Thursday pegging the US’ largest producer at a small 29.1 bushels/acre.

  • If confirmed, that would be the lowest yield for that state dating back to 2002 when the final yield for ND came in at 28 bushels.

  • The five-year average tour yield projection for the US is 43.6 bushels/acre.

  • Tour scouts look for some fields to be abandoned. But, the crop likely will have an above-average protein content.

  • USDA forecast the national HRS yield at 28.8 bushels per acre in July.

  • Those in the market thinking that USDA was too hard on the initial yield forecast were not given hopes of seeing a much larger crop at least from North Dakota.

  • North Dakota is estimated to account for 51% of US other spring wheat planted area this year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The tour results helped support wheat futures this week until weakness showed up in the overnight session on Thursday. We still will recommend patience for US and Canadian spring wheat producers until we know more about actual harvest size.

FBN
FBN

Argentina Crop Conditions

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported corn harvest at 81% complete, up from 72% last week and behind 96% last year.

  • Later planted corn yields continue to beat expectations and make up for production losses in the early stages of harvest.

  • The exchange left its corn crop forecast unchanged at 48 million tonnes compared to the USDA at 48.5 million.

  • Wheat planting was essentially finished at 99% complete, up from 97% previously.

  • Conditions were down slightly to 55% good to excellent from 57% and 6% poor/very poor compared to 4% the week prior.

  • Frost last week may have caused some damage and delayed the development of the crop, while dryness continues in the north.

  • BAGE kept its wheat crop forecast steady at 19 million tonnes compared to the last USDA projection of 20.5 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Argentina’s corn crop has remained stable, and will help offset some of Brazil’s shortfall. Increasing dry conditions may make it harder for wheat to recover from frost, and is a greater concern as neighboring Brazil deals with similar problems.
FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525