Trade Estimates Ahead of October WASDE
Reuters released its poll of analysts ahead of the next WASDE report.
Corn yield is seen at 176.0 bushels per acre, with total production at 14,973 million bushels; harvested acres are estimated at 85.095 million acres.
Bean yield is seen at 51.1 bpa and total production is at 4,415 million; harvested acres are estimated at 86.349 million acres.
For ending stocks, the trade sees corn at 1,432 million bushels, beans at 300 million, and wheat at 576 million.
Specifically, commodity brokerage StoneX trimmed its estimate of US corn yield to 176.6 bushels per acre from its September estimate of 177.5 and raised beans to 51.3 bpa from 50.8.
The brokerage raised its total corn production forecast to 15,022 million bushels from 14,998 million and beans to 4,436 million from 4,409 million.
Analytics firm IHS Markit raised its US corn yield estimate to 176.8 bpa from 175.4 in September and raised soybean yields to 51.1 bpa from 50.0.
However, they lowered total corn production slightly to 15,085 million bushels from 15,091 million; for beans, they raised production to 4,421 million bushels from 4,358 million.
FBN’s yield estimates currently stand at 172.0 bpa for corn and 50.6 bpa for soybeans.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: In last month’s report, the USDA raised corn yield to 176.3 from 174.6 bpa and soybeans to 50.6 from 50.0 bpa. The trade is revising their numbers to reflect bigger yields, and some field reports have supported this. The USDA will release the October WASDE report next Tuesday October 12. It will incorporate last week’s stocks and production figures.
CONAB Releases Brazil Grain Crop Estimates
CONAB, Brazil’s ag supply and stats agency, released its first 2021/22 grain estimates Thursday.
Total grain crop is seen at 288.61 million tonnes versus 252.743 million a year ago.
Soybean production is forecasted to be at 140.752 million tonnes, up 3.431 million from a year ago.
The corn crop is seen at 116.313 million, 29.315 million tonnes higher than last year.
These forecasts are at least partially driven by an increased growing area; soybean areas are expected to grow by 2.5% and corn by 4.75%.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: If correct, the forecasts will be big rebounds from Brazil’s disappointing 2020/21 growing season and records for corn and beans. The USDA currently has Brazil’s corn crop forecasted at 118 million tonnes and soybeans at 144 million. Plantings are underway, with summer corn at 37% done and beans at 4%. While under a drought, there have been no major concerns yet.
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