Census Reports Record Exports
March Census trade data showed US corn exports at a record 9.5 million tonnes, far ahead of 6.3 million the month prior and 4.6 million last year.
First half 2020/21 corn exports are up to 46.5 million tonnes from 23.5 million last year.
Ethanol exports were 133 million gallons compared to 102 million last month and 140 million last year, with China taking 48 million gallons.
DDG exports were reported at 882,000 tonnes vs 779,000 last month and 900,000 last year.
March bean exports were 84.3 million bushels, down from 94 million last year and falling 83.2 million from Feb.
Marketing year to date bean exports are record large at 2,070 million bushels, up from 1,210 million last year.
Meal exports were 1.3 million tons in March, bringing the total for the first half of the year to a record 7.9 million tons.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The Census report points up the huge export demand for US ag products. Bean exports have cooled in recent months as the demand has shifted to Brazil, while shippers are now concentrating on executing the record large corn export program, which as yet shows no sign of slowing. It is likely the USDA will need to increase its full season export projections in coming reports.
Potential Record Ukraine Grain Crops
SovEcon forecast the Ukraine wheat crop at a record 28.6 million tonnes.
That is up nearly 1 million tonnes from the previous forecast and would be well above last year’s harvest at 24.9 million tonnes.
Conditions for the grain improved in April thanks to favorable rainfall during the month.
The previous record wheat crop was harvested in 2019 and totaled 28.3 million tonnes.
The agency sees the corn harvest potential at a record 36.6 million tonnes versus 30.3 million cut in 2020 and the previous record of 35.9 million.
Last year’s spring and summer weather had adverse effects on the crops, especially corn.
This year’s crops look to be larger at this point on more favorable weather assumptions and the potential for larger planted areas.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The larger crops versus last year are not a surprise because of higher acreage but also on the assumption that weather will be better versus a year ago. Plus, prices are higher and that is likely translating to more planted area. Ukraine’s larger corn crop will probably be taken mostly by China. Larger crops overall in the Northern Hemisphere are not viewed as a positive for prices, but with demand remaining strong and declines in stocks this year for corn and beans, we need a much larger crop to keep stocks from falling again in 2021/22.
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