Jan 29, 2021

U.S. Exports Remain Elevated

Total commitments are at record levels for this time of year and show no signs of slowing

U.S. Exports Remain Elevated

  • Corn sales last week of 72.8 million bushels were above expectations and were the highest in six weeks.
  • Japan was the biggest customer, purchasing 27.4 million bushels, while China was a buyer of 3 million.
  • In daily announcements this week China has been reported as a buyer of over 145 million bushels, which should be reflected in next week’s report.
  • Bean export sales were lower than expected for 2020/21 at 17.1 million bushels, and higher than expected for 2021/22 at 57.5 million.
  • Chinese old crop activity this week included net purchases of just under 10 million bushels.
  • Wheat sales last week were 14 million bushels, were the highest in four weeks and within expectations.
  • China was seen purchasing 4.8 million bushels of wheat which included 2.4 million switched from unknown destinations.
  • Upland cotton sales of 322,700 running bales were up 10% from the previous week and 22% from the prior 4-week average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Total commitments are at record levels for this time of year and have not shown much sign of slowing yet. At some point South American supplies will become available but there is little room for harvest or logistics delays. Higher prices may be needed to cool the current sales pace.

FBN

Argentina Crop Update

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina corn planting at 97% complete, up from 93% last week and in line with 97% last year.
  • Corn condition ratings decreased to 22% good to excellent from 28% last week and are below 59% last year.
  • The exchange left the production estimate steady at 47 million tonnes compared to USDA’s estimate at 47.5 million and 51.5 million last year.
  • The BAGE report showed Argentine bean planting is complete.
  • Soybean conditions also declined for the week to 18% good to excellent versus 21% last week and 66% last year.
  • 53% of the crop is flowering compared to 67% on average, while 16% of the crop is forming pods versus 31% average.
  • The exchange lowered its bean crop forecast to 46 million tonnes from 46.5 million previously versus USDA at 48 million.
  • The near term forecast calls for 2-4 inches of rain across most of the key growing areas which should help to stabilize conditions.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Weather has not been overall favorable for Argentina, but has improved some in recent weeks. Any losses for Argentina are a plus for other exporters and are supportive for corn and beans. We are still weeks away from the bulk of harvest, so the outlook can change. But remember, the current Brazil+Argentina crop is forecast to be a record and even then, the world is facing a tightening supply situation.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014