Feb 08, 2021

Brazil Soy Outlook Stable

Prices start week higher anticipating supportive data from USDA on Tuesday

Brazil Soy Outlook Stable

  • In Rio Grande Do Sul, 25% of the crop is pod filling compared to 41% average and 44% is flowering compared to 38% average.
  • 1% of the crop is mature versus 2% average, and last year, harvest in RGDS did not begin until the week of February 20.
  • The weather forecast turns much drier in southern Brazil, giving the area an opportunity to dry out and allow Parana harvest to begin.
  • In center/west Brazil, Mato Grosso’s harvest is just over two weeks behind last year’s pace (see Chart of the Day below).
  • Northern Brazil remains wet for the next two weeks, particularly in Minas Gerais but also Mato Grosso and Goias that will keep harvest pace slow.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The Brazilian bean crop is slightly behind but has benefited immensely from the ample rainfall having recovered from dry conditions seen early in the growing season. A large crop will be needed to keep world stocks from tightening further. USDA will update its projection Tuesday, while Conab’s next official forecast is due out on Thursday. Brazil’s slow harvest pace has opened the US export window a bit wider in the near term, leading to solid demand and higher prices.


Ukraine Exports and Prices Down

  • Ukrainian milling wheat export prices have fallen by $10-$11 per tonne last week to $280 to $288 per tonne FOB Black Sea.
  • Export prices for Ukrainian corn at $264-$270 and barley at $249-$257 were almost unchanged to slightly weaker.
  • Ukraine has sold 29.4 million tonnes of grain for export so far in the July to June marketing year, down 20.5% from last season.
  • The volume included 13.09 million tonnes of wheat, 11.8 million tonnes of corn and 3.95 million tonnes of barley.
  • The government has projected exports at 45.4 million tonnes in 2020/21, down from nearly 57 million tonnes of grain last year.
  • Corn production in 2020/21 was down 14% to 29.8 million tonnes.
  • 25.1 million tonnes of wheat were produced, reflecting a 15% decrease.
  • Ukraine established a 24 million tonne export cap for corn for the 2020/21 marketing year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Ukraine wheat prices are softer in the near term mostly due to a jump in Russian grain exports ahead of approaching export tax increases. Ukraine suffered a drought last summer in its southern growing region, which contributed to tighter world stocks and helped support prices overall.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014