Feb 05, 2021

Most Ag Markets Quietly Firmer

USDA reports slated for Tuesday

USDA Reports Slated for Tuesday: Reuters’ Poll Results

  • The trade looks for overall supportive reports.
  • Analysts see US corn stocks are slipping over 150 million bushels versus the January forecast, likely on higher exports, to around 1,392 million bushels.
  • The average trade forecast for US soybean stocks is at 123 million bushels, down from USDA’s January forecast at 140 million.
  • US wheat stocks essentially are seen steady at 834 million bushels.
  • Brazil + Argentina corn production is expected around 155.4 million tonnes, down one million tonnes from the January forecast.
  • For soybeans, the combined production total is at 180 million tonnes, also down one million from USDA’s January outlook.
  • Average trade estimates look for tighter global wheat, corn, and soybean stocks versus a month ago.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We agree with the direction of movement in corn and soybean stocks, but we also look for tighter US wheat stocks. It could be several more weeks before export interest picks up for the US. The marginal cutback in South American crops is not surprising. If USDA were to add to those crops, it could shock the market. But, as has been the case, we are in a tightening stocks situation and expect prices overall to remain supported for now.


South America Corn Crop Outlook Trimmed

  • The USDA ag attaché in Brazil lowered the forecast for this year’s corn crop to 105 million tonnes from 107 million previously.
  • The last USDA projection of 109 million tonnes will be updated Tuesday.
  • The attaché sees new crop Brazilian corn exports at 37 million tonnes, unchanged from previously, but below USDA’s official forecast of 39 million.
  • The attaché’s new crop corn ending stocks forecast is at 3.41 million tonnes versus USDA’s 6.49 million.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina corn planting complete compared to 97% last week and in line with average.
  • Corn crop ratings increased to 24% good to excellent up from 22% last week, but remain well below the 59% seen last year.
  • The exchange lowered its production forecast to 46 million tonnes compared 47 million last month and USDA currently at 47.5 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The Brazil attaché’s report cited reduced yield expectations for the first corn crop due to earlier dryness as well as expected delays in planting the safrinha crop. BAGE also recognized dry conditions in Argentina to start the season in reducing its production forecast. While the recent rains have helped improve soil moisture, the forecast is concerning. Prices will likely continue to see support while there is still risk that production can be lower.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014