Feb 17, 2021

Markets Weaker Ahead of USDA Outlook Forum

On Friday morning, agency will release full new crop balance sheet projections

USDA Ag Outlook Forum This Week

  • USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum will take place via webcast February 18-19.
  • USDA is expected to forecast new crop acreage and average farm price expectations for the coming year on Thursday.
  • On Friday morning the agency will release the full new crop balance sheet projections.
  • The average projection for new crop corn planted area is at 92.9 million acres with a range of 91.5-96.0 million compared to 90.8 million last year.
  • Soybeans area is at 89.8 million with a range of 87.0- 92.0 million versus 83.1 million last year.
  • All wheat acres are projected at 45.3 million with a range of 42.0-47.0 million, compared to last year’s 44.3 million.
  • The average analyst’s forecast sees cotton acreage of 11.8 million with a range of 11.0-12.6 million versus 12.1 million last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The USDA’s first not-quite-official new crop supply/demand forecasts will be released at the February Outlook Forum with the first official estimate as part of next May’s monthly USDA report. Acre’s are expected to see a significant increase this coming year which will be needed to help offset the expected tight stocks situation.

FBN
FBN

Brazil Safrinha Corn Planting Lags

  • Mato Grosso safrinha corn planting is 21% complete up from 8% last week, but well behind 47% average.
  • The region is expected to see above average rainfall this week, which would keep a lid on field work.
  • Rio Grande Do Sul harvest progress is slow and was reported at 39% complete, up 2% from last week and slightly ahead of 34% average.
  • Safrinha planting in Parana is 8% complete versus 2% last year and 36 average.
  • Rainfall is expected near normal over the next two weeks and should allow for better planting progress.
  • First crop harvest pace is improving and was reported at 21% up from 10 last week and ahead of 13% last year.
  • Corn conditions were down slightly at 68% good to excellent compared to 69% last week and below 93% last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Planting progress of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop along with Argentina’s corn conditions are likely to be important for prices. The slow planting progress of the larger second crop increases the risk of production loss as maturity is pushed further into the dry season, and any crop threat in South America would support higher prices.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014