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Aug 16, 2021

Markets Steady To Stronger With Wheat Leading Higher

Safras Forecasts Brazil’s 2022 Outlook

  • Safras sees Brazil’s harvest increasing 5% versus this year’s crop to 147 million tonnes on higher acreage.

  • In the past several years, Brazil’s bean acreage has been expanding.

  • The agency sees Brazil exporting 90 million tonnes of beans this year.

  • If confirmed, that would be a record, but USDA sees an even larger total at 93 million tonnes.

  • The agency is forecasting 2021 exports at 86 million tonnes.

  • Crush for the upcoming harvest is seen at 48.5 million tonnes versus the current year’s forecast at 46.7 million.

  • Mato Grosso’s winter corn harvest has basically wrapped up with soybean plantings likely to start there in the coming weeks.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: It is no surprise that the market looks for Brazil to expand its bean area as the exporter has been doing for years. Record exports will be in reach if the country can boost its area and keep yields near average. But, the world’s appetite will have to keep expanding to meet the growth in production in Brazil and that not push other exporters out. For now, China’s imports are seen increasing, year over year, but not as much as Brazil’s crop is seen growing.


Rosario Exchange New Crop Forecasts For Argentina

  • The Rosario grain exchange forecast Argentina's 2021/22 soy production at 49 million tonnes.

  • Drought reduced the previous season's production to 45 million tonnes.

  • The area planted to soybeans is expected to fall for a sixth straight year as corn planting continues to grow.

  • In the upcoming 2021/22 season, soy planting is projected at 16.4 million hectares (40.5 million acres), 3% less than last year.

  • The exchange raised its new crop corn forecast to 55 million tonnes from 54 million.

  • Corn planting is projected to expand 6% to 6.83 million hectares (16.9 million acres) in 2021/22.

  • The wheat harvest forecast was cut by 400,000 tonnes to 20.1 million tonnes compared to 19 million from the Buenos Aires exchange.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: The rebound in soy production is expected after the adverse growing conditions experienced last season and Argentina will continue to be a major exporter. Corn in Argentina is enjoying higher profit margins than beans, which explains the shift in planting intentions. Increased corn production can be expected to move into the export market and compete with origins such as Ukraine and the US.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391