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Jun 22, 2021

Markets Mixed After Lower Crop Ratings Reported

Weather pattern is not ideal, and market could add risk premium to corn and beans quickly if forecast turns more threatening

US Crop Progress

  • Corn crop ratings decreased to 65% good to excellent from 68% last week, in line with trade estimates.

  • As expected, the most noticeable declines occurred in the northwest Corn Belt states, and conditions in the east were not enough to offset the declines.

  • Soybeans were rated 60% good to excellent, down as expected from 62% last week and 70% last year.

  • Winter wheat conditions were down 2 points to 48% good to excellent compared to 50% last year.

  • Winter wheat harvest is 17% complete, up from 4% last week, but lagging the average pace of 26%.

  • Spring wheat conditions fell sharply below expectations to 27% good to excellent from 37% last week, and compared to 75% last year.

  • Cotton conditions improved better than expected to 52% good to excellent from 45% last week and above 40% last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Weather forecasts show cool temps early this week, warmer later in the week, and another rain event at the end of the week but with less coverage for the northwest portions of the Corn Belt. The weather pattern is not ideal, and the market could add risk premium to corn and beans quickly if the forecast turns more threatening. The deterioration of spring wheat conditions is expected to support Minneapolis prices.


Ukraine Crop Update

  • APK-Inform raised its forecast for this year’s corn crop to 36.2 million tonnes from 35.7 million previously.

  • This is less than the last USDA projection at 37.5 million tonnes , but greater than the 30.3 million produced last year.

  • The consultants marginally lowered their projection of Ukraine’s wheat crop to 27.3 million tonnes from 27.6 million last month.

  • The outlook is under the USDA at 29.5 million tonne and above the 25.4 million last year.

  • However, the forecast for 2021/22 wheat exports was left unchanged at 19.75 million tonnes versus 17 million last year.

  • They now see the rapeseed crop at 2.46 million tonnes, down slightly from 2.51 million previously versus 2.62 million last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Ukraine is expected to see better production than last year as long as weather remains normal. However, much like the US there is little room in the supply/demand equation for any crop problems.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391