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CBOT Prices Rebound Looking Forward to Next Crop Rating

China weekly soy crush lower

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Soy soybean soybeans VIA PIXABAY Feb 2021

Last Chance !! Poll Closes Soon !! Reminder to Participate in FBN’s Poll

  • There are a few days left to participate in FBN’s Planted Area Poll!

  • To complete the acreage poll, click here.

  • Thank you to those members who already have completed the poll.

  • There are several reasons why participation is encouraged.

  • USDA’s June Acreage report will be closely watched by the trade.

  • With tight old-crop stocks for corn and soybeans, there could be big swings in futures values.

  • Our 25,000 FBN farmers are in a unique position to share their acreage intentions for their own benefit, which is a key tenant of FBN’s mission - helping farmers; we want to use your data to benefit you.

  • Results will be provided several days prior to USDA’s report, giving you time to make pricing decisions.

  • The report will include guidance on any marketing strategies based on the results of the poll as well as our opinions on fundamentals.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We encourage all members to participate. This will give FBN key insights ahead of USDA’s report on June 30, which likely will be market moving. In essence, the more participation we have the better our results will be and the better positioned you can be ahead of June 30. We will send the FBN report out around June 23 and will hold a webinar June 28. Please join us!


China Weekly Soy Crush Lower

  • JCI reported China’s weekly soy crush fell 1% last week to 1.66 million tonnes, which is also down 9% from last year.

  • The total 2020/21 crush is estimated at 62.9 million tonnes, up 4 million over last year.

  • USDA has forecast China’s crush up 4.5 million tonnes for the year, but may decrease its outlook if weekly crush doesn’t start climbing.

  • Soymeal sales increased 28% from the previous week, but are still 56% below last year.

  • Meal stocks remain big, needing domestic demand to improve before crush margins and rates can move higher.

  • The Brazilian bean export lineup sits at 7.6 million tonnes compared to 9.8 million last year, as Chinese demand stays soft.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: China’s crush margins can’t seem to bounce much as product demand falters, and with heavy arrivals at ports limiting forward demand. After a fast start poor Chinese demand is slowing Brazilian exports and US new crop sales, which has contributed to recent price weakness. Going forward, an increasing hog herd will likely keep demand steady.

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