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Apr 27, 2021

Markets Continue to Move Higher

U.S. crop progress; Canada’s acreage outlook for 2021

U.S. Crop Progress

  • Corn planting was reported at 17% complete, up from 8% last week, but lagging a bit behind the 20% average.

  • Soybean planting is up from 3% last week to 8% complete and ahead of last year’s 7% and the 5% average.

  • The planting pace across IL, IN, and OH was up noticeably.

  • Winter wheat condition ratings fell to 49% good to excellent from 53% last week but remain in line with the average.

  • The decline in wheat ratings came mostly from significant decreases in HRW country, while SRW states were mostly steady.

  • Winter wheat heading progress continues to lag at 17% compared to 23% average.

  • Spring wheat seeding is still moving ahead of average, and was 28% complete compared to 19% last week and 19% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Cold, almost wintry weather hampered corn planting, but did not slow bean planting with pace slightly faster than expected. The weather forecast stays wet this week for the eastern Corn Belt, but the central and western Belt will be dry and warm and likely make a lot of progress this week. However, the warmer than normal weather will not help the HRW which is trying to recover from frigid temps last week.


Statistics Canada’s Acreage Outlook for 2021

  • The agency released its survey-based acreage report today.

  • Canola area is seen at 21.5 million acres versus 20.8 million in 2020.

  • Spring wheat acreage is expected to total 16.3 million acres, down nearly 9% versus last year.

  • Durum wheat area is forecast to hold steady around 5.7 million acres.

  • Barley acreage is forecast to jump 14% at 8.6 million acres versus plantings in 2020 at 7.6 million.

  • Lentil area is forecast to hold around 4.2 million acres while pea are forecast to decline nearly 10% to 3.8 million.

  • Flaxseed area gains 6% but holds below one million acres.

  • Oat area is seen declining 6% to 3.6 million acres.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The main two take-aways are the canola acreage total is not nearly large enough to add to stocks for next year and spring wheat area came in light, which will keep Minneapolis futures supported for the coming planting season. We view the report as overall supportive to grains and oilseeds.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to, persons residing in Australia and Canada.

Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525