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Sep 02, 2021

Gulf Logistics Snarl Pressures Nearby Cash Prices

China soy crush declines; Ukraine grain exports increase

China Soy Crush Declines

  • JCI reported China’s crush fell 7% last week to 1.9 million tonnes compared to 2.1 million last year.

  • Crush margins have weakened but remain positive; domestic meal demand has slowed and bean stocks are low.

  • Port meal stocks are climbing again as port operations are starting to return to normal.

  • Total crush for 2020/21 to date is 83.6 million tonnes which is up 2.9 million from last year, and still in line with USDA’s recent projection.

  • Brazil’s August shipments to China are estimated at 4 million tonnes, down from 5.5 million in July and 4.6 million last year.

  • China saw much larger shipments from Argentina in August of 1.3 million tonnes which hurt Brazilian demand.

  • In August USDA reduced its import projection to 101 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Ample current stocks and lack of demand growth may limit Chinese bean import needs over the next two months through October. Especially considering the export issues at the Gulf, this could result in the USDA lowering China’s 2021/22 import forecast further.


Ukraine Grain Exports Increase

  • Ukraine has exported 8.6 million tonnes of grain in the first two months of the 2021/22 marketing year, up 11% from 7.73 million a year earlier.

  • Export included 4.6 million tonnes of wheat, 2.8 million tonnes of barley and 1.26 million tonnes of corn.

  • The agriculture ministry forecasts production of a record 80.6 million tonnes of grain in 2021, up from 65 million last year.

  • The ministry reported wheat harvest was 99.4% complete, and forecast production at 32.52 million tonnes, with a yield of 4.62 tonnes per hectare.

  • Total grain exports are pre projected at 60.7 million tonnes in 2021/22, up significantly from 44.7 million in 2020/21.

  • Grain exports could include 30.9 million tonnes of corn, 23.8 million tonnes of wheat, and 5.2 million tonnes of barley.

  • These totals compare to last year’s exports of 23.1 million tonnes of corn, 16.6 million tonnes of wheat and 4.2 million tonnes of barley.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Ukraine’s record grain crop is expected and the agriculture ministry’s projections are a little under the most recent USDA report. Exports could pick up further in the near term after Hurricane Ida snarled US Gulf logistics.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391