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Jun 24, 2021

Northwest Heatwave Expected

More precipitation desperately needed to replenish declining soil moisture levels

Northwest Heatwave Expected

  • A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the western part of North America this weekend.

  • The forecast is for temperatures well over 100F far north into British Columbia and western Alberta.

  • There is concern the heat will attempt to spread east across Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern US Plains late next week.

  • Temperature extremes in the Prairies have already been above 100F a couple of times this summer.

  • The high pressure ridge is expected to break down late next week, but return in the second week of July.

  • Drought conditions in the region will make it very difficult for meaningful precipitation to reach into the area.

  • The upper Midwest and northern Plains along with the Canadian Prairies are forecast to only receive a restricted amount of rainfall.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: As crops suffer from stress, the benefits from this month's rains in the northern Plains are drying up, with more precipitation desperately needed to replenish declining soil moisture levels. The bottom line remains the same as it has been all spring, and summer weather will likely continue to be a real challenge for much of the Prairies, northern US Plains and upper Midwest because of dryness and periods of excessive heat. We expect prices will continue to be supported by the production risks.


Russian Harvest Begins

  • Russia has started harvesting its 2021 grain crop with good prospects for another year of large production.

  • Russia's agriculture ministry reported the southern region of Stavropol began to harvest winter barley this week.

  • Winter-wheat harvesting in the southern region is expected to begin in July, with most of the work expected in the first half of the month.

  • The start of harvest in many regions of Russia has been delayed by about two weeks after rains and cool weather delayed planting.

  • Sovecon has raised its forecast for Russia's 2021 wheat crop to 84.6 million tonnes from 82.4 million previously.

  • Russia harvested 85.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2020.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Recent weather has been favorable for crops in the world's largest wheat exporter. Spring wheat weather in the eastern parts of Southern Russia, and Volga is forecast to turn hotter and drier next week and there are some concerns about production there. However, good winter wheat conditions suggest that any spring wheat losses can be offset by strong winter wheat output. We expect another year of strong exports from Russia, which will likely work to limit price gains.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525