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Jun 10, 2021

Corn, Beans Firm Ahead of USDA Report

Brazil imports corn; Strategie Grains updates cereal crops

Brazil Imports Corn

  • The first shipments of Argentine corn have begun to arrive in Brazil as the safrinha crop suffers from the effects of drought.

  • A shipment of 35,000 tonnes arrived at the end of May and a second shipment of 30,000 tonnes arrived last week.

  • There have also been imports of wheat, not just corn, for animal feed.

  • Brazil is expected to import 191,000 tonnes of Argentine corn in June, up almost 80% from 103,000 tonnes last year.

  • In the first four months of this year, Brazil already imported 758,000 tons of corn, up almost 70% from last year.

  • CONAB cut its Brazil corn production estimate to 96.4 million tonnes from 106.4 million in May.

  • The USDA will update Brazil corn forecast at midday, with an average trade estimate of 96.2 million tonnes compared to 102 million last month.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Imports are expected to keep growing during the year due to decreased production, record high prices and high demand from the meat industry. Brazil’s production problems are likely to result in fewer exports which will drive demand to other origins. The US is expected to pick up more export sales for both old-crop and especially new-crop.

FBN
FBN

Strategie Grains Updates Cereal Crops
  • The agency released its latest forecasts for grains.

  • Soft wheat harvest is forecast to come in at 131 million tonnes, which was up from 129.6 million tonnes in May and 119.4 million last year but in line with the 2019 harvest.

  • Exports are seen at 28.6 million tonnes, up from 27 million forecast in May.

  • Durum production is seen at 8.1 million tonnes; that is up from 7.3 million last year but in line with May’s forecast.

  • Barley production is seen at 53.9 million tonnes.

  • That is up 300,000 tonnes from the previous forecast but would be down versus last year’s harvest at 55.5 million tonnes.

  • Projected yields were raised for soft wheat and barley versus May.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The updated forecasts suggest that frost concerns were overrated and that the EU is set to have a big rebound in production for wheat and durum with barley production slightly less on lower area. The larger wheat and durum total could weigh on global prices and could limit US exports to world buyers.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391