Mar 29, 2021

Ag Prices Weaker as Trade Reduces Risk

USDA will release planting intentions for 2021 on March 31

Reuters Poll for USDA’s US Prospective Plantings Report

  • USDA will release planting intentions for 2021 on March 31.
  • The average trade expectation for corn area is 93.2 million acres.
  • Soybean area is seen coming in at just under 90 million acres.
  • All wheat area is expected at 45 million acres & other spring at 11.6 million.
  • Durum area is forecast at 1.6 million acres.
  • All cotton area is expected at 11.9 million acres.
  • Sorghum is seen at 6.8 million acres.
  • Barley area is expected to total 2.7 million acres.
  • Oat acreage is seen at 2.9 million.
  • Rice area is expected at 2.7 million acres.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Year over year, the trade expects higher planted area for corn, soybeans, winter wheat, sorghum, and barley. Other spring, durum, cotton, oat, and rice acres are seen lower versus a year ago. FBN’s poll had similar results but our cotton outlook was for a higher area and while we see a higher bean area, we are well shy of 90 million acres. The takeaway is that the area for major commodities is seen higher versus a year ago, but larger crops are needed given the tight balance sheet situation.


March 1 Stocks Expectations

  • USDA will release March 1 stocks on March 31.
  • Reuters released a poll of trade expectations, discussed below.
  • March 1 corn stocks are seen at 7,767 million bushels.
  • That would be below last year’s level at 7,952 million bushels and underscores the larger crop but higher use versus last year.
  • Soybean stocks as of March 1 are seen at 1,543 million bushels.
  • That is well below year-ago levels at 2,255 million bushels.
  • Wheat stocks are expected to come in around 1,278 million bushels.
  • If realized, stocks would be below March 1, 2020 stocks which were 1,415 million bushels.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The key takeaway is that stocks for the big three commodities are expected to be below year-ago totals. That is key for helping keep support in the markets. We agree with the directional expectations; a surprise would be much larger stocks for any of the three commodities.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014