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Apr 30, 2021

IGC Updates Monthly Production Outlooks

Confirms large crops and large consumption for coming crop year

Argentina Crop Report

  • Corn conditions were rated 41% good to excellent, up from 37% last week and significantly higher than 17% last month.

  • Harvest progress was reported at 20% complete, up from 17 last week, but still lagging behind last year’s 37% pace.

  • The Buenos Aires Crop Exchange crop forecast was unchanged at 46 million tonnes, while the last USDA projection was 47 million.

  • Soybean crop conditions were unchanged from last week at 9% good to excellent and 61% average compared to 19% and 50% last year

  • 89% of the crop has reached maturity, catching up to the average of 91%.

  • Soy harvest is 32.9% complete, up from 18.5% last week, but well behind 68.2% last year and the 56% average.

  • The BAGE left its bean crop forecast unchanged at 43 million tonnes versus the USDA at 47.5 million.

  • The weather forecast is dry for the next week to ten days, which should allow harvest to pick up with significant progress expected next week.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The crop in Argentina continues to improve as recent rainfall has helped later developing crops. Although the rain has hindered harvest, producers are selling at a faster rate than demand, making Argentine corn the lowest price for world trade.


IGC Updates Monthly Production Outlooks

  • IGC trimmed its global corn production forecast by one million tonnes to 1,192 million tonnes, but that still would be a record.

  • Global consumption for corn also is seen at a record with stocks seen dropping by around seven million tonnes.

  • A cut to the US crop - seen at 379.5 million tonnes, down from 384 million - who is the world’s top producer, partially was offset by a boost to Argentina (up 3 million to 59.3 million) and the EU (up 2.5 million at 67.5 million).

  • Global wheat production was held at 790 million tonnes, up notably from last year’s harvest at 774 million.

  • Soybean production was held at 383 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous outlook and a record while demand is forecast at a record also.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: IGC confirmed large crops and large consumption for the coming crop year. The cut to US corn production could be premature but most likely is tied to the acreage total USDA released a month ago. The larger wheat crop is in line with our expectations.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525