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Jun 09, 2021

Ag Markets Pause Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

Australian crops forecast higher; Census export data

Australian Crops Forecast Higher

  • ABARES’ quarterly forecast for the 2021 Australian wheat crop is at 27.8 million tonnes, up significantly from the 25 million projected in March.

  • The new forecast still falls short of last year’s record crop of 33 million tonnes.

  • The agency’s projection compares to the current USDA forecast of 27 million tonnes, and would be the fourth largest crop on record.

  • The canola crop forecast was 4.2 million tonnes, up from 3.5 million versus the USDA at 3.5 million and 4 million last year.

  • If realized the canola crop would come in just below the record production 4.3 million tonnes.

  • Barley production is forecast at 10.4 million tonnes, up from 8.8 million previously, just above the USDA’s 10 million and below 13 million last year.

  • The rainfall outlook for June to August, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, is for rainfall to likely be above average in most growing regions.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: High world prices are expected to drive winter crops’ planted area to a record high. Growing conditions have been favorable in most of Australia’s production areas, and winter crops in 2021/22 are forecast to be well above average. The prospect for greater production in Australia may help fill some of the shortfall in North America.


Census Export Data

  • Census bean exports for April were 50.9 million bushels, down 29 million from last year.

  • Exports decreased 33 million bushels from March as demand shifted from the US to Brazil.

  • Shipments to China were 86,000 tonnes, bringing exports for the marketing year to 35.2 million tonnes.

  • April bean imports were 1.3 million bushels, bringing cumulative imports to just 7.7 million.

  • Corn exports for April were 8500 tmt (well above 7900 reported by FGIS) and brings MYTD exports to 45.9 mmt vs 28.9 mmt over the same period last year

  • Shipments to China made up 11.5 million of the 17 million tonne increase.

  • Ethanol exports were 113 million gallons versus 133 million in March, and DDG exports were also softer at 863,000 tonnes from 882,000 last month.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Cumulative exports for the crop year are confirmed at record levels for both corn and beans. The USDA projections may be a little light, and would tighten carry-outs further if they are increased. USDA has forecast bean imports for this year at 35 million bushels, well above the current pace, which could also lead to further tightening if the projection is not met. We expect the current low stock conditions to leave little room for production problems this year, and to be supportive of prices.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525