UkrAgroConsult reported on the 20% fall of Brazilian soybeans premiums. The fall is due to Chinese buyers suddenly stopping their purchasing of Brazilian soybeans at the start of August. Since the start of the year, China had been responsible for buying 85% of the countries soybean exports, in part because of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.
Buyers first retreated because of the announcement of trade talks between the United States and China, but now traders believe the stall is due to short-term fundamentals are weak and crush margins are low.
With the end of the Brazilian soybean season near and the tariffs on U.S. soybean, it's unclear where China will find soybeans to import over the next five months. This may force China to buy U.S, soybeans or face a shortage.
