Highlights of the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report include:
WHEAT: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports. Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with reductions in Hard Red Spring and White on stronger than expected export competition for these classes.
Global wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Kazakhstan and Iraq. Projected 2018/19 world trade is fractionally higher as larger EU and Brazil exports more than offset reductions for the United States and Mexico. The EU is increased 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million as its recent improved export competiveness is expected to continue for the remainder of the trade year.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during February as indicated by Energy Information Administration data. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 2.375 billion, reflecting diminished U.S. price competitiveness and expectations of increased exports for Brazil and Argentina. With no other use changes, ending stocks are raised 100 million bushels to 1.835 billion.
The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $3.55 per bushel. For sorghum, 2018/19 exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 85 million, which if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting a reduction in the projected amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol. Offsetting is a 20 million bushel increase in feed and residual use. The midpoint price forecast is lowered 5 cents to $3.30 per bushel.
The global coarse grain production forecast for 2018/19 is down slightly to 1,371.9 million metric tons.
Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Argentina and Ukraine and reduction for the United States. For 2017/18, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2019 are raised based on larger than expected late-season shipments. Partly offsetting is a reduction for Argentina. China’s coarse grain imports for 2018/19 are lowered, reflecting lower forecast sorghum and barley imports. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised with lower sorghum and barley imports. Corn imports are raised for the EU and Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Brazil, and Argentina.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean meal extraction rate reflecting data reported by NASS in the Oilseed Crushings report. With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion. Soybean oil used for methyl ester production for biodiesel is raised 200 million pounds to 8.2 billion on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year (Oct-Sept). With increased production more than offset by higher use, soybean oil stocks are forecast lower. The season-average soybean price range forecast of $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel is unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean oil and meal prices are also unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound and $295 to $335 per short ton, respectively.
The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes lower production, crush, and increased stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is down 0.2 million tons, with lower soybean production more than offsetting higher rapeseed and cottonseed.
