Sep 13, 2022

USDA Lowers Corn, Soybean Yields in September WASDE

Soybean yield saw biggest, most unexpected change in September report

On Monday, September 12, the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for September.

USDA cut corn production 415 million bushels to 13.94 billion bushels, and also cut soybean production 153 million bushels to 4.378 billion bushels as well.

Corn yield was lowered corn yields 2.9 bushels to 172.5 bushels/acre, which fell in line with pre-report estimates.

Soybean yield saw the biggest, most unexpected change with yield projections lowered almost 3% from the previous August forecast. Soybean yield was cut 1.4 bushels/acre to 50.5 bushels/acre.

USDA reduces projections

According to Reuters, USDA reduced U.S. soybean demand projections as a result of the smaller crop, though stocks-to-use in 2022-23 is set for a nine-year low of 4.5%. Chicago soybean futures jumped more than 5% on Monday to their highest levels since June.

Along with soybean yield, harvested corn acres fell below the trade range, coming in a million acres lower than previously estimated. A much smaller cut had been expected for corn, but soybean acres were seen rising slightly. Planted acres also came in lower for both crops.

September WASDE Report

WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25/ bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00/bushel would remain a record SAFP.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks.

  • Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22
  • Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels/acre, down 2.9 bushels
  • Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million
  • Total U.S. corn use is cut 250 million bushels to 14.3 billion
  • Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices
  • Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million to 5.3 billion

With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $6.75/bushel.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks.

  • Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22
  • Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield
  • Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels/acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month
  • The crush forecast is reduced 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced 70 million bushels on lower supplies

Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels, down 45 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35/bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and higher cottonseed production.

Read the full September WASDE.

Lisa Cleaver

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Marketwatch: Oct, 02

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 6.6922
high: 6.8741
low: 6.6102
close: 6.6102

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.6782
high: 13.7587
low: 13.1333
close: 13.1536

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 9.3697
high: 9.6472
low: 9.1747
close: 9.4272

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 8.3873
high: 8.7783
low: 8.2498
close: 8.5389