According to the latest forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, agricultural exports for fiscal year 2025 are expected to decrease to $169.5 billion, a $4.0 billion drop from the revised figures for fiscal year 2024. This anticipated decline is largely attributed to reduced unit values for key exports such as soybeans, corn, and cotton, coupled with a decrease in beef volumes.
The forecast reveals a significant downturn in several major commodities:
- Soybean exports are projected to fall by $1.5 billion, totaling $22.9 billion.
- Corn exports are also expected to decrease by $900 million, reaching $12.2 billion.
- Cotton exports are set to decline by $900 million to $4.5 billion, influenced by softening unit values.
- Beef exports are forecasted at $8.4 billion, a reduction of $1.0 billion from the previous fiscal year, due to lower production affecting available export quantities.
Despite these reductions, there are areas of growth within the agricultural sector. Horticultural exports are projected to increase by $1.2 billion, reaching a record high of $41.5 billion. Ethanol exports are expected to remain stable at $4.3 billion.
Geographically, Mexico and Canada continue to be the leading markets for U.S. agricultural products, though exports to Mexico are anticipated to slightly decrease by $100 million to $29.2 billion. Exports to Canada are expected to remain steady at $28.9 billion. However, exports to China are forecasted to experience a more significant drop of $3.0 billion, totaling $24.0 billion, due to reduced demand and strong global competition.
Concurrently, U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2025 are forecasted to rise by $8.0 billion from the previous fiscal year, reaching $212.0 billion. This increase is driven primarily by higher imports of horticultural products as well as sugar and tropical products, reflecting the continued robustness of the U.S. economy.
These projections are based on current global economic conditions and existing policies as of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report dated August 12, 2024. The report also notes that real GDP growth in key regions such as Asia, the Eurozone, and South America will influence agricultural trade dynamics, with varying economic forecasts across these areas affecting global demand for U.S. agricultural products.
