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Expectations for Reports on Monday

With the market eyeing the report on Monday here are the expectations for crop production and ending stocks.

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In the overnight session the grains are mostly mixed with corn up 2 ¾ cents, soybeans trading 1 ¾ cents lower and wheat down by ½ a penny. Trade will be heavily focused on the reports scheduled for release at 11 AM CST on Monday. Below are expectations for Mondays report.

For the crop production report the average analyst expectation is for corn output to be lowered by 58 million bushels. The average analyst guesses yield will be revised .1 bushel per acre lower and a 332,000 acre decrease in planted acres. The large gap between FSA and NASS acreage numbers is expected to narrow in this report.

Soybean production for 2014 is also expected to see a slight decline by only 2 million bushels. Yield is expected to increase by .1 bushels per acre, but acres are anticipated to drop by 359,000. Neither corn nor soybeans are expecting a sizeable revision in the production side of the balance sheet.

Average Analyst Crop Production Expectations

Production (billion bushels) Yield (BPA) Harvested Acres

Corn 14.349 173.3 82.765

December 14.407 173.4 83.097

Soybean 3.956 47.6 83.044

December 3.958 47.5 83.403

In the January WASDE report analysts are expecting ending stocks to rise for wheat by 12 million bushels to 666 million bushels carryout. Corn and soybean ending stocks are both expected to decline in this month’s report. The average analyst guess has corn expected to decline by 71 million bushels to a 1.927 billion bushels carryout and soybeans to shrink 17 million bushel to 393 million bushels as a result of strong export sales which have booked 90% of the current USDA expectation already with 34 weeks left in the marketing year.

Average Analyst Guess: Ending Stocks

Avg. Ending Stocks Guess December

Wheat .666 .654

Corn 1.927 1.998

Soybeans .393 .410

*In Billion Bushels

For a full report on January 12th expectations take a Grain Hedge 14 day free trial by clicking here.

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