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Can Strong Export Sales Lift the Market?

Soybeans have been breaking into new lows recently as the weather continues to be optimal during its most critical development stage. Can strong export sales help turn the grain around?

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In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with December Corn up 2 1/2 cents, soybeans down 1 cent and wheat in Chicago up 4 cents. The U.S dollar is down .12 percent and crude oil is mostly unchanged.

Pro Farmer went through Iowa and Illinois on Wednesday and reported at the end of the day its forecast for Illinois is 171.64 bushels per acre which is on par with the August USDA forecast of 172BPA. This would be a 14 percent drop in yield from the previous year. Both Pro Farmer and the USDA are below the latest Planalytics forecast of 176.2 BPA. The soybean pod count was 1,190.47 in a 3x3 foot area which was down 12 percent from the previous year. The Pro Farmer crop tour will be leaving Iowa this morning and scouting crops in Minnesota today. The tour will meet in Rochester, MN and release their final U.S yield projections later today.

Export sales were positive this week falling within analyst expectations for all the grains. Old crop corn booked 282,700 metric tons which beat analyst expectations and soybeans booked a positive 46,400 metric tons which was above the 0-200,000 metric tons expected by analysts. Wheat sales were on the low end the expected range at 314,400 metric tons. New Crop corn and soybeans were on the high end of expectations, with corn booking 576,400 metric tons and soybeans with 784,400 metric tons this week.

Ethanol production was unchanged this week at 965,000 barrels per day. Ethanol production remains well over the 4 year average and significantly higher than last year at this time. Ethanol stocks increased 32,000 barrels to 18.56 million barrels this week.

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