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Soybeans Continue to Trade Down

Grain Markets in Negative Territory

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Grain markets were in negative territory to start the day as soybeans continue to trade down to its recent low in the $10.20 area, off 60 cents from its high 2 weeks ago. In outside markets, the US dollar was trying to recover some of yesterday’s sharp losses while crude oil was higher.

USDA reported a 236,700 MT sale of soybeans to unknown destinations, of which 170,700 is old-crop.

Rains overnight in Argentina came in better than expected with some areas of the South and West getting 2 inches of precipitation. Other areas of Argentina are expected to see rains starting Thursday and heading into the weekend. In Brazil, rains are expected to bring widespread coverage over the next few weeks including to the dry sections of the NE.

In soybeans, managed money is still thought to be heavily long with an expected 156K contracts to the buy side, down only 20K from the CFTC report on Friday.

The EU lowered their carry-out estimates for corn thanks to a surge in corn use for ethanol. The Commission found more corn going into ethanol production as opposed to wheat.

The line-up of vessels expected to load soybeans at Brazilian ports over the next month shows a spike in shipments to around twice the level of a year ago due to a speedy harvest and strong global demand. Port schedules suggest around 4.39 million tonnes of soybean exports in February and early March, 97 percent more than a year ago.

Crude oil will look for direction from EIA inventory data which is expected to show a 3.3 million barrel build on the week versus last week’s 2.84 million barrel build. The last 3 weeks have seen stocks come in higher than expected.

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