Grains softened overnight after two days of heft advances. In outside markets, the US Dollar hit its highest mark since Jan 11 while crude oil put in a one-month low.
After the close yesterday, USDA’s January soy crush was 170.6 MB, slightly better than expected of 169.3 MB. Year-to-date crush for the marketing year is up 3.3% over last year which would imply the remainder of the year needs to hit 1.6% to reach USDA’s estimate. In light of SA competition and weak soymeal demand the USDA forecast seems appropriate.
The European Commission forecast that usable soft wheat production in the 28-country European Union would reach 143.0 MMT in 2017/18, up 6.5% from 134.3 MMT in 16/17. In its first projections for the next cereal crop season, the Commission forecast that EU soft wheat exports would rise to 28.9 MMT in 2017/18 from an expected 24.0 MMT in 2016/17. Weekly export sales this morning were mostly disappointing. Both old- and new-crop corn were below expectations. Wheat and soybeans were within expectations but new-crop were below expectations.
Weekly Export Sales-
Actual Expected
Wheat - OC 353 300-500
Wheat - NC 99 100-300
Corn - OC 692 700-900
Corn - NC 20 150-350
Soybeans-OC 427 300-500
Soybeans-NC 0 0-200
The US Dollar continues to climb as Fed Watchers put a higher probability on a Fed rate hike in March. The jobs report slated for tomorrow morning will be widely watched for indications on the economy’s health.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)
