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EU Corn Production Set to Rise and Compete with U.S.

Unless China is set to expand imports, world prices will likely stay under pressure from increased production

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EU Corn Production Set to Rise

  • Strategie Grain projects the EU corn crop at nearly 66.5 million tonnes, up from 64.2 million last year.
  • The last forecast from the USDA saw EU production at 68.3 million tonnes.
  • SG reduced the yield forecast 3.7% from last year for France, which has struggled with less rain than normal.
  • However, production is forecast to increase to 14.9 million tonnes versus 12.3 million last year on a greater planted area.
  • AgroConsult projects Ukraine will produce 38 million tonnes of corn, up from 35.9 million last year.
  • The USDA attaché recently forecast production at 38.3 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The weather forecast for most of Europe is non-threatening and if production forecasts hold, it will compete for export business with the U.S. China has been seen as a large buyer recently, covering their World Trade Organization quota. Unless China is set to expand imports, world prices will likely stay under pressure from increased production.

EU Wheat Harvest Comments

  • Strategie Grain projects the EU soft wheat crop at 130 million tonnes, down sharply from 147 million last year.
  • The consultant lowered its projection for France, Romania and Bulgaria by 3 million tonnes overall.
  • The cut was partially offset by an increase of 1.5-2.0 million tonnes for Poland, Germany and the Baltic States.
  • For France, SG reduced the forecast to just under 30 million tonnes, down from 31.6 million and below the 40 million seen last year.
  • A farm cooperatives survey projects Germany's 2020 wheat harvest will fall 2.6% on the year to 22.46 million tonnes.
  • Sparks Polska increased its wheat crop forecast for Poland to 11.6 million tonnes, up 4% from last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Europe’s harvest results have been a mixed bag so far. Lower production in France, a major exporter, could lead to more business for others, but the US struggles to be competitive to typical destinations due to higher freight costs. It will likely take a larger production problem in the Southern Hemisphere’s upcoming season to increase exports and move prices significantly higher.

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