Strategie Grains Updates EU Oilseed Production
Rapeseed remains the focal point with a tight global situation likely for 2021.
The agency sees the EU cutting 17 million tonnes of rapeseed, up fractionally from the previous forecast and up from the previous two years.
In 2019, the EU harvested 15.6 million tonnes and in 2020, 16.6 million tonnes were harvested.
But, this year’s higher harvest, which is well underway, is not going to fix the importer’s tight supply situation.
The firm sees the EU still are seen declining for the 2021/22 crop year.
That partially tied reduced prospects for imports on Canada’s tight supply situation.
The world is still going to be in a tight global rapeseed situation.
The European Commission forecast the EU crop at 16.9 million tonnes last week. Estimates can change with harvest still underway, but a crop around 17 million tonnes will not alleviate supply issues for the EU.
Strategie Grains looks for prices to potentially exceed 2020/21 levels given the global supply situation.
Sunflower production is seen at 9.7 million tonnes, up from 8.7 million last year while soybean production is forecast at 2.7 million tonnes versus 2.6 harvested in 2020.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The tight rapeseed/canola situation is not limited to the EU; the US, where the crop is relatively small, is set to have much lower production versus a year ago as is Canada, which is the world’s top exporter by a long shot. This keeps upside risk present for canola but also is supportive to soybeans.
Forecasts for Brazil’s Upcoming Planting Season
Brazil will start its soybean plantings in September.
Datagro, an agriculture firm, sees a 15th consecutive year of Brazil expanding its soybean area.
The firm looks for a 4% increase in area to 40.57 million hectares, or 100 million acres, for the coming planting season.
That would result in a production of around 144 million tonnes, if the weather cooperates.
First corn plantings also are forecast to be up 4% to 4.56 million hectares or 11 million acres.
Second corn area is seen at 16.4 million hectares or 40.5 million acres, up 5%.
The total corn crop is seen around 120 million tonnes, which would be up notable from this year’s harvest.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: It is no surprise to see firms expecting a higher planted area total for Brazil’s bean crop. The world’s largest producer continues to expand area with that not expected to change anytime soon. Brazil will remain the top competitor to China. The US balance sheet is tight however, for the coming crop year, which presents added risk to global soybean production - in that if Brazil’s crop does not make, we would be faced with serious supply issues.
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